Somalia: Consultant in Socio-Economic Impact Assessment

TERMS OF REFERENCE

FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF ROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOMALIA AND SOMALILAND

BACKGROUND

Somalia has been without an effective central government since 1991 due to civil war. In the long aftermath to the war between Somalia and Ethiopia from 1977 to 1978, rebellions over most of the territory led to the collapse of the Somali State in 1991; to the de facto separation of the former Somaliland, and its unilateral declaration of independence; and a few years later, to the creation of the first of the (self-defined) Somali federal states, Puntland, in 1998. Meanwhile, Mogadishu kept its dream of remaining the capital city in spite of the absence of any kind of central government over a long period.

In 2012, Somalia entered a phase of gradual peace building and recovery, following a political transition accompanied by the enactment of a new constitution. A new parliament was formed and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the president of Somalia for four years. This led to an international recognition of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). A new interim constitution has been adopted, which is undergoing revision and federal states formed. In 2016, a new parliament has been formed along the traditional lines, as has been the case in the recent past (i.e. the so-called 4.5 system). On 8^th of February, 2017, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo was elected by the parliament as the new president of the FGS.

Somalia has an aggregate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about USD$ 5 billion with a per capita GDP of about USD$ 400. Estimated GDP growth is between 3% and 4% annually, with moderate inflation. Considering population growth rate at 3% per annum, per capita GDP is expected to stagnate unless a major investment programme in national and sub-national infrastructure is implemented to raise employment and household incomes. Trade is in chronic deficit with exports of USD$ 700-800 million (mainly livestock), and imports of about USD$ 3.5 billion per annum. The country is sparsely populated, with the population almost evenly divided between cities (30–40%), rural sedentary or semi-sedentary people (30%), and the rest (30%), are nomadic or seminomadic. The arable land in Somalia is at 2% arable mostly around the two southern river valleys, in the northwest and in the Bay region),

Like other sectors in Somalia, transport has suffered from lack of maintenance of infrastructure, especially roads majorly contributed by weak of institutions necessitating the need to repair, rebuild, and re-create institutional and regulatory frameworks (the “soft” part of infrastructure). This has resulted to high cost of transport due to the often-inaccessible coastline and the large distances between ports. Been the country with the longest coastline in Africa, Somalia has a good potential for ports and the shipping industry, as well as for fisheries. Also, the topography, climate, and soils make construction and operation of transport infrastructure fairly easy, and natural road construction materials are abundantly and widely distributed.

ILO ROAD REHABILITATION PROJECTS

Over the course of 2016/2017 ILO implemented road rehabilitation projects in Baidoa, Berbera, Jowhar, Kismayo and Beledweyne. Through surface upgrading and road widening, the project intended to alleviate road access, extend access to basic services, assist economic development and reduce the financial burden of travel. The projects were implemented in the following 5 districts:

Brief description of the projects in the 5 districts

Gravel roads were rehabilitee in Beledweyne Jowhar and Kismayo by ILO with an objective to open the area and make it accessible to basic services, reduce transport cost and promote the development of the districts. The rehabilitated roads have significantly contributed to better living standards through access to core social infrastructure such as education, health, agriculture and employment opportunities, reduced expenditure on transport and the money is used to buy food and other requirements. Equally, trade and other commercial activities have increased in the area due to better road. Post-harvest losses of agricultural produces has been greately reduced due to the project.

In Beledweyne, the project has contributed to 32% of overall district economic infrastructure. The roads created 502 jobs for the young Men (367) and Women (135) in 11,317 worker days. In Jowhar the project contributed to 29% of overall district economic infrastructure and created 442 jobs for the youth in Jowhar in 10360 worker days. Equally in Kismayo, the project contributed to 37% of overall district economic infrastructure and improved the accessibility to markets, small business centers been opened on the sides of Farjano road. It also created 472 jobs for young men and women (115) in 10460 worker days. The projects did not cause any harmful environmental impact.

In Berbera, the Livestock Tarmac Road project which was set up with an intention to alleviate road access, extend access to basic services (port), assist economic development, reduced the time and death of livestock during travelling to port - similarly Livestock introduced traffic comforting to the district, reduced traffic jam and improved the safety of the motorist. Effectively, the project has significantly contributed to 20% of overall district economic and improved the accessibility to port, presidential office and market. It’s implicit that Livestock road project has created 730 jobs for young men and women (146) in 14,300 worker days, with no harmful environmental effects. This project improved the public infrastructure sector of Berbera district as the city is growing and obviously there have been notable traffic increase in the city so this completed Livestock road eased the increased traffic from the main roads to port/president office in Berbera.

Through surface upgrading and road widening of Xanano gravel road in Baidoa, the Youth Employment Somalia Programme (YES) improved road accessibility, access to basic services, assisted economic development and reduced the financial burden and floods in the area. 3000 meters of Xanano gravel road was rehabilitated creating 13,500 worker days for 600 youth of Baidoa town.

OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The main objective of the assignment is to quantify and describe the socio-economic
impact of the road rehabilitation and how the interventions could be improved.

Specific objectives

1. Establish whether the roads maintenance project has brought about some change in
   behavior and the socio-economic situation of the population in the project areas
   (specifically);

· quantify such change and its distribution among impact beneficiaries over time;

· determine the level of local participation in the programme;

· identify problems (if any) hampering the participation of women in the road rehabilitation;

and on the basis of the above to:

· suggest how socio-economic benefits can be maximized in an expanded road rehabilitation programme;

Scope of work

Scope of the socio-economic study shall include the following:-
i) review the road rehabilitation works carried out by the Youth Employment Project in
relation to the achievement of the development objectives, which include employment
creation and poverty alleviation.
ii) Assess the socio-economic benefit realized through the implementation of the
road rehabilitation works project.
iii) Assess the effect of the road rehabilitation works project on women and men in
relation to their status in community, total workload, family life, health and welfare.
iv) Assess how this affects the traditional way of living in the project areas.

v) Recommend on how the interventions could be improved

DESCRIPTION OF WORK

In order to fulfil the services required, the consultant team shall undertake tasks, which
shall include, but not limited to the following:

· assess the distribution of (any) benefits among the population of the impact areas
e.g. farmers, traders, consumers etc;

· specification of constraints to full realization of benefits and their equitable
distribution among the residents of the project impact areas;

· provision of specific recommendation for improving the interventions

· review women's and men’s participation in the road rehabilitation project, in relation to the number of women and men employed, level of employment, recruitment
procedure, activity (task) assignment and payment for work done;

· assess to what extent employment possibilities, through short term, have changed
women and men's status in the community, their role in the family and their overall
workload;

· assess work related health problems (if any) on women and men working or who
worked on the projects and recommend measures needed to be taken to minimise the risks;

· assess the suitability of road rehabilitation project methods and hand tools for women
workers; and

· assess what alternative sources of income would have been pursued by those
employed by the project if the project was not implemented.

METHODOLOGY

1. An assessment of the local economic impact of the YEP project to establish how
   money spent on the project is retained or revolves within the local economy. The interest is in which new businesses are established and which businesses improve, expand or disappear (road rehabilitation and non-road rehabilitation-related). This process will assess the economic characteristics of local employment being generated (directly and indirectly) as a result of using cash for work road rehabilitation.

2. The key question for investigating the economic impact of YEP project applied in
   road rehabilitation is how is the money spent and where does it flow?
   Infrastructure projects usually have two verifiable means for tracking the flow of
   funds: One side of the coin is the master roll and the bill of quantities. They are the
   first reference in assessing the impact of project spending on business development
   (and the impact of these businesses on other businesses) and the development of
   incomes. The other side of the coin is the impact of expenditure of wage incomes.
   This could require questionnaires to investigate the changes in performance of
   local shops and businesses.

3. When the available project data are not sufficient to establish evidence of various
   economic actors benefiting from the operations of YEP, specific inquiries
   into direct and indirect local economic effects are to be made through surveys. It is
   recommended to limit the investigation to those actors that are most likely to be
   affected by the project.

4. The local (business) environment is not a laboratory in which the consultant can fully
   control the flow of money. As an integrated part of his/her investigations, the consultant
   needs to include a control group of respondents located in an area that is not
   benefiting from YEP. The main purpose of using a control group
   is to balance impact effects against possible errors and side effects. Side effects
   may occur from other developments, associated or not associated with the project.
   N.B. Please note that the main objective of impact analysis is to quantify and qualify the
   changes emerging from the project in an adequate manner, rather than to prove the
   ultimate causal relationship between project implementation and individual
   economic characteristics.

5. As a general guideline for impact surveys, the number of variables should be
   limited, in order to ‘get them under control’. Hence, field questionnaires and
   questions should be straightforward and user-friendly.

Key-aspects to be looked into include:

a) Impact on direct employment (directly involved in project expenditure):

· Quantity of manual labour involved in road rehabilitation.

· Quantity of semi-skilled labour involved in supervision of projects
(rehabilitation)

b) Impact on indirect employment (indirectly involved in project expenditure):

· workers who move on to other job (opportunities) through acquired
project skills

· changes in labour migration

· workers permanently employed as a result of community capacity
building

· extra workers employed in support services, agri-business, and
businesses that have been established as a result of infrastructure spin-offs

· impact on dependants

NB. For employment referred to under a) and b) it is worth making a qualitative specification: level of skill, wage rate, and job duration. A more general distinction should be made between which share is locally employed and which is from outside the locality (define boundaries).

c) Impact on other businesses, e.g. other construction activities, local markets and
food sector.

Assess the most important and verifiable changes in business operation:

· quantity of new established businesses

· developments in their product quantity and variety

· developments in sales volume and profit (as much as possible and to the
extent business records permit)

· developments in return value of their shops and businesses (economics
of location)

· the main reasons for these changes (not naturally assuming a causal
relationship between infrastructure improvement and business
development)

The indicators measure and report on:

· Household Incomes

· Employment

· Wages

· Incidence of Poverty

· Travel Times

· Travel Costs

· Cost of Public Transportation

· Cost of Goods Transport

· Prices of Key Foodstuffs

· Shopkeeper Monthly Sales

· Improved Access to Healthcare and Education

TIMEFRAMES AND INPUT

· The study is envisaged to be carried out by a consultancy company with a sociologist/researcher as team leader, an engineer with labour-based technology experience and research assistants.

· ILO will provide support through a Technical Advisor on Employment Intensive Investment Programmes.

· The consultancy will be responsible and accountable for the recruitment of research assistants.

· The consultant will submit a proposal that meets the requirements of the client, split into technical and financial components.

· Work will commence only when the client and the consultant reach an agreement.

· The consultant is expected to furnish the client with a proposed workplan showing milestones and estimated corresponding duration.

· The consultant is also expected to propose a manning schedule with unit rates for all the personnel.

· Reimbursable costs should also be included in the financial proposal.

· The draft final report will be submitted to the client for comments.

· The final report will be produced after comments have been received from the client within 10 working days of receiving such comments.

DELIVERABLES

· Report detailing the Impact assessment of rehabilitated roads on the environment, employment, trade and livelihood systems of the communities (Livestock, Agriculture, Fishery etc)

· Soft copies of data sets (qualitative and quantitative) with Images and videos recordings about the feedback from beneficiaries and images of rehabilitated roads

DURATION OF ASSIGNMENT:

2 months, beginning on 4^th December 2017 and ending on 2^nd February 2018. The payment schedule will be as follows:

40% as the first instalment upon signature of the contract and inception report.

60% as second and final installment upon submission of final technical and financial report to the satisfaction of the ILO.

CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF THE BEST OFFER

The selection criteria is based on the combined scoring method, where qualifications, experience and methodology will be weighted a maximum of 70% and combined with the financial offer which will be weighted a maximum of 30%. To pass the technical evaluations, bidders need to score a minimum of 60 points. Below is the evaluation criteria:

Technical Evaluation Criteria (weighting 70%)

1.Experience in conducting at least similar impact assessment in Somalia on road rehabilitation programmes and broader cash for work programmes

List of projects to be provided in the technical offer. Projects implemented in target locations an added advantage. - Possible Points 25

2.The methodology proposed articulates ways to capture thefollowing information:- Possible points 20

a. Impact on direct employment (directly involved in project expenditure):

• Quantity of manual labour involved in road rehabilitation.

• Quantity of semi-skilled labour involved in supervision of projects

(rehabilitation)

b. Impact on indirect employment (indirectly involved in project expenditure):

• workers who move on to other job (opportunities) through acquired

project skills

• changes in labour migration

• workers permanently employed as a result of community capacity

building

• extra workers employed in support services, agri-business, and

businesses that have been established as a result of infrastructure spin-offs

• impact on dependants

c) Impact on other businesses, e.g. other construction activities, local markets and food sector.

3. The bidder developed strong tools, procedures and quality plan to conduct the impact assessment, paying particular attention to quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis tool to measure:

· Household Incomes

· Employment

· Wages

· Incidence of Poverty

· Travel Times

· Travel Costs

· Cost of Public Transportation

· Cost of Goods Transport

· Prices of Key Foodstuffs

· Shopkeeper Monthly Sales

· Improved Access to Healthcare and Education

Possible Points 15

4. Adequacy of the workplan provided detailing all the key milestones (inception report, implementation plan, M&E framework, report writing) for activities expected of the bidder and how they will be achieved. Possible Points 20

5. Experience, Qualifications of Key staff personnel - Possible Points 20

a. 1 Senior researcher with a minimum of Master degree at least 5 years of experience

b. 1 Specialist on labour-intensive infrastructure rehabilitation/construction. Degree and 5 years of experience

c. Research assistant with degree in relevant field and strong background in research

Section detailing experience and certification is a mandatory requirement.

Total 100

After completion of the technical evaluation, the evaluation panel will open the financial proposals of the technically compliant bidders. The financial proposals will be evaluated according to the following formula:

X=100* Y/Z

Where:

X are the points to be assigned to the offer under consideration;

100 are the total points available to be allocated;

Y is the price of the compliant bidder who offered the lowest price;

Z is the price of the bidder whose proposal is under consideration.

The contract will be awarded to the bidder who receives the highest combined score resulting from the technical and financial evaluations. The weighting of the technical and commercial evaluation will be 70% and 30% respectively.

Bids should be received no later than 24^th November 2017, 16.00 EAT and should include both technical and financial proposals as separate attachments. Late bids shall be rejected.

Proposals should be emailed tohrsomalia@ilo.org